Better Dwelling reported this week that Canadian mortgage arrears have climbed to 0.28 percent in February, up 89 percent from the record lows of 2022. The data, drawn from the Canadian Bankers Association, shows the volume of delinquencies is now at the highest level in more than a decade. Credit to the team at Better Dwelling and the CBA for surfacing a number that most agents in the GTA are not paying attention to.
That figure does not sound dramatic. Less than one third of one percent. But it is the trend that matters, not the absolute number. We have not seen a level like this since the 2014 cycle, and the trajectory is still pointing up.
For working realtors, this story has two sides and most agents I talk to are only thinking about one of them.
The first side is the obvious one. Some of your past clients are in trouble. Buyers from 2021 and 2022 who locked in at low rates are renewing into a payment that does not work. Investors who bought condos on a pro forma that no longer cash flows are running out of patience. There is going to be inventory coming to market over the next twelve months that is not voluntary. If you have built genuine relationships with your past clients, this is the year that matters. A check in call now is worth more than ten cold leads later.
The second side is the one nobody wants to talk about. Realtors are also clients of the same banks. We carry mortgages, lines of credit, car loans, business expenses. We have variable income that is uncomfortably correlated with the same housing market that is now showing stress. The agents I see getting into financial trouble are not the ones who have a slow quarter. They are the ones who never knew what their numbers looked like in the first place.
When my brokerage cut a commission cheque, I used to do what most agents do. Bank it, pay the credit card, move on, hope the next deal closes before the next bill. That is not a system. That is a coin flip with a license attached to it.
Two things I do differently now and that I would push every realtor reading this to think about.
First, know what your monthly minimum is. Not your average. Your minimum. The number you must hit to stay above water across mortgage, brokerage fees, board dues, insurance, and family. If you do not know that number, you cannot know whether the deal you are about to take is worth the time. Ten thousand dollar commissions feel like wins until you realize three of them in a quarter is not enough.
Second, separate your operating cash from your tax cash from your personal cash. The CRA does not care that you had a slow March. HST and income tax are not optional. Agents who hold a separate account and move thirty percent of every cheque into it the day it lands sleep better than agents who do not. That is not advice. That is math.
The arrears story this week is not just about your clients. It is a reminder that the same forces pressing on them are pressing on us, and the agents who survive cycles are the ones who run their books like a business, not a slot machine.
I built BrokerBooks because I wanted that discipline built into a tool I could open on my phone between showings. If you want to try it, the trial is open at brokerbooks.ca.